Time series analysis of foodborne diseases during 2012–2018 in Shenzhen, China
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract The present study aimed to use the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model forecast foodborne disease incidence in Shenzhen city and help guide efforts prevent disease. data of diseases comes from infectious diarrhea surveillance network, community student network. January 2012 December 2017 was used for model-constructing, while 2018 model-validating. mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) assess performance model. monthly between 954 32,863 with an rate 4.77 164.32/100,000 inhabitants. ARIMA (1,1,0) adequate change series, yielding a MAPE 5.34%. mathematical formula (1 − B) × log(incidence t ) = 0.04338 + ε /(1 0.51106B). predicted incidences next three years were 635,751, 1,069,993, 1,800,838, respectively. Monthly shown follow This can be considered predicting future aid decision-making processes.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal Of Consumer Protection And Food Safety
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['1661-5867', '1661-5751']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00003-021-01346-w